- Stratégie basée sur le net des 'Commercial'
- Stratégie basée sur le net des 'Small Spec'
- Stratégie basée sur le net des 'Large Spec'
- Stratégie basée sur le total de 'l'open interest'
- Stratégie basée sur le sommaire des 'Small Spec'
- Stratégie basée sur le pourcentage (%) des 'COTs'
- Stratégie la plus 'bullish'
Stratégie basée sur les positions nettes du 'Commercial' :
Traders often follow the Net Position of the Commercials under the assumption that the "dealers" in the cash markets know more about those markets than anyone else. When the Net Position of the Commercials is near their one year record, three year record, 5 year record, or all time record net LONG position, it suggests, in varying degrees, that the Commercials feel strongly that the price level is very cheap. When the Net Position of the Commercials is near their 1 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr, or all time record record net SHORT position, it suggests that they feel strongly that the price level is very high.
When this occurs, some Traders monitor the market with "technical indicators" to look for indications of a change in trend in the direction of the Net Commercial position. If the trend has turned, consider the possibility that the trend following Large Specs might begin to reverse their positions, and push the market in the direction of the net Commercial position.Markets are identified as "on watch" when the net commercial position is within 95% of their 5 year record. For example, following the net position in a 12 week summary indicates if the net position is within 95% of the high of the five year range indicating a buy signal watch, or within 5% of the low of the five year range indicating a sell signal watch.
Like said before, a market is considered "on watch" when the net commercial position is within 95% of it's 5 year record net long or net short in the past six weeks. For a market that is on "buy watch", enter a buy trade on a breakout above the previous two week high. For a "sell alert", enter a sell on a breakout below the two week low. Adjust your entry levels and stops levels each Monday based on the previous two weeks. Consider exiting an open trade when it goes "off watch" (more than six weeks since the net position was within 95% of the 5 year record net position, three to four weeks for currencies), or use the trailing stop as the exit.
In the currency markets, it is suggested you consider the net commercial position as a market direction "watch indicator" only for three or four weeks after the net position begins to reduce from the record or near record levels. (For the currency markets) The commercials in the currency markets are generally the international banks providing liquidity to the futures markets through cash market arbitrage. They buy or sell futures versus the cash market for an arbitrage profit of fractions of a tick. The record, or near five year record , net position is not necessarily a statement by the commercials that a given currency market is cheap or dear, but rather a statement that the trend has been in place long enough for the commercials to have built arbitrage positions to levels near where in the past the market has reversed long enough to allow the net commercial position to move in the other direction.
The strategy of using the two week high low for trade entry and stop following the net commercial position, and only monitoring the trade for the six week period since the net commercial position was last near it's five year record (three weeks for currencies) has been selected based on finding a simple strategy that establishes trade parameters only once a week and holds trades only during what is likely the "first move" in the possible trend change. This type of strategy that has "one look per week" is not suggested to be an optimal trading strategy and is not appropriate in the more volatile markets.
It is recommend that if you consider trades following the net commercials in markets where the net commercial position is near the one year or three year range using a shorter term trading strategy than a two week breakout strategy, and with daily monitoring.
Stratégie basée sur les positions nettes du 'Small Spec' :
The Small Specs are generally the small individual trader. The small individual traders are generally considered to be wrong most often. When their positions are near the one, three, or five year record it can be used as an indicator of extreme optimism or pessimism that can be use as a "contrary indicator." An extreme position by the Small Specs opposite a position by the Net Commercials can identify markets with above normal potential for profit in the direction of the Net Commercial position.
Stratégie basée sur les positions nettes du 'Large Spec'
The Large Specs are generally the "trend following" Commodity Pools. Positions approaching the one year record range can be viewed as an indicator of a solid trend in place. Trend continuation "technical" signals might be considered. Positions approaching the five year record can be viewed as an indicator that the trend may be nearing extreme levels. Trend reversal "technical" signals might then be considered.
Stratégie basée sur le total des 'Open Interest' :
Some Traders believe that "Total Open Interest" will increase when the Commercials increase their hedging, and decrease when the Commercials decrease their hedging. Therefore, increases in "Total Open Interest" might be considered an indicator of a coming price decline, and decreases in "Total Open Interest" might be considered as an indicator of a coming upward price movement. Further, record net commercial positions could be considered "confirmed" by record open interest totals.
Stratégie basée sur le sommaire (net options) du 'Small Spec' :
The Small Spec NET OPTION summary is calculated by subtracting the CFTC COT report of small Spec "Futures Only Report" from the Small Spec "Combined with Options Report." Generally, back at least as far as the time of the caveman, option traders have lost money. The NET OPTION DATA for the "small spec" tells us what the individual option traders as a group are doing. As a group, these are the most consistent money losers. If they are going heavy in a given direction in a given commodity we should consider positions opposite that group. It is recommended that you consider short term "breakout trades" opposite the direction of the small spec when they have an extreme position on one side of a market based on their five year history. Consider it an even better opportunity when the net commercial position is also near a five year record in a direction opposite the heavy small spec option position. Option volatility in the commodity markets tends to be high at market tops and low at market bottoms (in contrast to the stock market where option premiums tend to have low volatility at tops and high volatility at bottoms.) If the commodity where the small spec has a large net short net option position is ALSO at a one year or multiyear low price, traders might even consider medium term or long term long call option positions or bull call spreads (opposite the direction of the heavy small spec option position and in the direction of the net commercials.)
Stratégie basée sur le pourcentage (%) des COTs' :
The index shows a net buying or selling by commercials in all the commodity markets and is calculated by simply adding up the column of the net commercial positions, but reverse the sign on the interest rates, the stock indexes, and the Dollar index. That way they are all a reflection of the net commercials anticipating higher or lower commodity prices. This total can then be viewed as a composite indicator of the activity of the over all markets that can signal broad general trend changes in overall commodity prices when extreme levels are reached. At extreme levels in the %COT (ie near the high or low of the 5 year range) consider restricting your trading strategies in the commodity markets to trading with the direction of the net commercial %COT. (Anticipating higher commodity prices means interest rates go higher and therefore lower Bonds and stocks). The rising net commercial %COT says the net commercials think commodities in general are rising and the Fed should be raising interest rates to fight inflation and rising interest rates often cause the Stock Market goes down. But once at the maximum extreme - somewhere in the range of the five year record - prices should peak and start to come down and the net commercial %COT should also start to come down, signaling an end to the rising commodity prices and interest rate tightening and the beginning of a interest rate decline and a stock market recovery.
Stratégie la plus 'bullish' et son contraire :
The most bullish configuration would show large hedgers heavily net long more than normal, large speculators clearly net long, small traders heavily net short more than seasonal. The shades of bullishness are varied all the way to the most bearish configuration which would have these groups in opposite positions-large hedgers heavily net short, etc. There are two caution flags when analyzing deviations from normal. Be wary of positions that are more than 40% from their long-term average and disregard deviations of less than 5%.
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire